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IDC Predicts Grim 2009 for IT and Telecommunications
By Susan J. Campbell TMCnet Contributing Editor The global economic turmoil is touching nearly every industry and information technology is no exception. In fact, it is supposed to impact every trend and development in this and the telecommunications markets in 2009. The upside of this news is that IDC predicts that the financial pressures that IT vendors and their customers are feeling will actually accelerate the industry transformation that has been underway over the last several years.
“A slow global economy will act like a pressure cooker on the IT market, speeding the development and adoption of new technologies and business models," said Frank Gens, senior vice president and chief analyst at IDC (News - Alert), in a Thursday statement. "The reason why this will happen is simple: the benefits offered by these disruptive offerings and models will be magnified. Suppliers and customers will migrate toward new solutions not because they are about the future, but because they offer practical benefits today." IDC’s predictions for the IT industry in 2009 are greatly impacted by a forecasted global recession and a radical industry infrastructure. With economists forecasting dramatically slowing global GDP growth, IDC predicts that global IT spending growth will slow by half or more to effective strip more than $35 billion of potential revenue out of the market. To ensure their survival, vendors must reorient their businesses and offerings to target markets that are above average in growth. Such markets include the BRIC and the small and medium-sized business (SMB) sector. Even with slower spending in these markets, they will still outperform the overall market. IDC predicts that the expansion of cloud computing will accelerate as budget pressures drive users to the cloud’s low costs. Spending growth will slow, yet it will still outperform more traditional IT alternatives. Vendors are expected to scramble to announce cloud-related offerings to capture new customer spending. Green IT is also expected to have a good year, benefitting from its ability to deliver near-term cost savings. Capital-intensive green investments are expected to move on many budget agendas. Other IDC predictions include a benefit to the online economy as more consumers turn to this medium to find better prices; mobile gadgets will experience a grim year as consumers will make due with what they have; there will be a further crumble between the business/personal divide; and 2009 will be a breakthrough year for information access and analysis. "Although one would expect to see businesses and consumers to 'hunker down' and put IT spending on hold, it is more likely that technology spending will continue in areas where the benefits are clear," added Gens. "While all sectors of the market will experience slower growth in 2009, the disruptive offerings and models that are transforming the industry will take less of a beating than traditional IT areas and will actually gain share faster in the down economy." While many throughout the world are bemoaning the current economic conditions, it really should not be interpreted as dooms day for all. Is it possible that we have been living and working in an inflated economy and now it must right itself to ensure everything is brought back to order? This is not to assume that companies won’t struggle, jobs won’t be lost or that hardships are not on the horizon. It can mean, however, that these are merely bumps in the road to more stable times of steady growth in the future. Susan J. Campbell is a contributing editor for TMCnet and has also written for eastbiz.com. To read more of Susan's articles, please visit her columnist page. Edited by Stefania Viscusi
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